Montella says Turkey reached Nations League A on merit – But can that merit survive France and Italy?

In June 2026, I stood in the press area in Konya, watching Turkey beat France 2-0 on home soil. The Turkish crowd was ecstatic, but I didn't get swept up in the atmosphere. I watched how the red-shirted players moved without the ball – in compact blocks, confident, showing no fear against a team that had just won the World Cup. When Vincenzo Montella opened his squad meeting this September with the words "We came here by our own merit," I believed he meant it. But my belief stopped there. Why? Because the merit needed to get promoted is one thing, and the merit needed to stay in the top tier is a completely different story. Turkey has entered a playground where France and Italy never allow newcomers to be comfortable. I disagree not because I want to be different. I disagree because the majority has been wrong with me before. In 2026, I was among the first to mock Manchester City for paying 50 million pounds for Kyle Walker. I called it a crazy deal and bet my editor that City's defense would collapse. Three years later, they laughed at me for Walker, but then they cried at rising full-back prices across the market. The lesson was costly: don't judge football by emotion, judge it by data and what happens on the pitch. And the data around Turkey's upcoming two matches tells a very different story from Montella's passionate words. Turkey qualified for the UEFA Nations League A for the first time in their history – the highest tier of European national-team football. No charity tickets here. They earned promotion on points, by winning their League B group, through a journey Montella carefully built. This is a genuine milestone for Turkish football. Montella knows it, and he used it to fire up his players in the squad meeting reported by Turkish newspaper Posta. The first two matches of this League A campaign – France then Italy, both at home – were described by him as "very important." He said: "We will fight until the last drop of our sweat on the pitch." He declared: "Whoever deserves the jersey will wear it." And he honestly admitted: "It is still the beginning of the season, and not everyone is in full form." Read carefully, Montella is sending two messages at once. First: we have the right to stand here. Second: don't blame us if fitness is not ready. That is extremely smart expectation management – I've seen many coaches do it before big games in my 27-year career. But it also exposes a truth nobody wants to mention: Turkey may have arrived on merit, but that merit is now being tested by two European elite teams, and glorious historical memories will not add a single point. Look at the recent head-to-head record. Turkey beat France 2-0 on June 8, 2026 in Konya, then drew 1-1 at the Parc des Princes on October 14, 2026. In the last two meetings with the world champions, Turkey are unbeaten. That is why Turkish fans have the right to dream. They can believe that if they once beat the world champions at this very Konya stadium, then troubling today's France is within reach. Based on my experience following matches, fighting spirit is real and valuable, but its shelf life is about ninety minutes. And today's France is not the 2026 version. They have superior pace, power, squad depth, and game-changing individuals Turkey cannot match at this early stage of the season. What concerns me is not the fighting spirit. It's the three layers of Turkey's squad in September. First: the fitness of players based in Europe – those who just finished pre-season, who played domestic cup matches, who are not all at their best. Montella himself raised this issue by saying "not everyone is in full form." So when no one is at their best, who does he pick? He picks those who "deserve" it. The deserving ones are not necessarily the most talented – they are the fittest. That creates a trade-off, and at League A level, every small mistake gets punished immediately. The second layer is adapting to League A's match intensity. In League B, Turkey often had time to control possession and impose their game. In League A, they enter a world where even the weakest teams can transition quickly and exploit space behind the defense. France and Italy are masters of that game. No tactical system was revealed by Montella in the pre-match press conference, no indication of whether the team would press high or sit deep. Instead, he talked about spirit and heart. That's good for a team meeting, but it won't solve a set piece, a fast counter-attack, or an individual error. The third layer is the psychological pressure of their own glorious history. I wrote about this during the 2026 World Cup when I believed in a defensive Iran against Spain. I wrote that Iran would not concede in ninety minutes, that they had nailed down their box. I even claimed Diego Costa would be helpless against a five-man wall. Then Iran conceded two goals in the final fifteen minutes, were eliminated, and I had to write a 1,500-word correction that same night. Iran didn't lose because of their defense. They lost because of the fear I saw before the match – the fear of falling behind in a game they could not afford to lose. When that fear appears, the concrete wall starts to crack. Turkey faces the same potential crack. If France pushes them back in the first half – which is entirely possible – can they keep the composure they showed in Konya in 2026? Or will they put pressure on themselves because of the declared "we are worthy"? The difference between a team that knows it's the underdog and a team that feels it must prove that worthiness is enormous. Montella is trying to build the image of a team that dares to think big, and I respect that. But a coach who was once mocked for his bold decisions at European clubs must also understand that on this stage, words are only the beginning. This is where I could be wrong. Maybe Montella and his players will embarrass me. Turkey has a generation of young players at top European leagues, hungry to shine on the big stage. A home match in front of passionate fans, with a highly motivated squad, can produce a result far beyond squad value. Football has seen such moments, and I myself witnessed one in Konya in 2026. So don't read this as a pre-match verdict. I'm offering a test based on my own data. At 43, I still speak hot, but the fire has learned to wait. I will wait to see Turkey's performance against France and Italy. I will watch how they handle Mbappé's counter-attacks, how they keep defensive shape against Italy's pressure, and how Montella picks his lineup based on actual fitness. If Turkey leave these two matches with four or more points, I'll be the first to write a retraction. But if they return empty-handed, everything will say one simple thing: the merit for promotion and the merit for survival are not the same. Montella preparing his team mentally for that outcome right now is the sign of an experienced coach. Fans get angry at me for breaking their dreams. But dreams built on truth last longer. And Turkey's truth will soon be written – not in words, but in the results on the pitch.